Research Materials: Papa John's International Short

The following are copies of materials for my research on Papa John's:

PZZA Memo.pdf

Download PDF • 319KB

PZZA Model.xlsx

Download XLSX • 118KB

The TLDR of the PZZA short is that they're going to miss on NNU guidance and SSSG will continue to face headwinds over the next 12-18 months. Their 4Q report was incremental evidence supporting my thesis. Frankly, I don't know very many people that eat at Papa John's and I think the K-shaped economy has left them in no mans land. Domino's dominates on convenience and price sensitive consumers have traded down to frozen options or cheap chains like Little Caesars.

It's a 10% weight and won't go above that unless the short becomes less crowded. Short interest is just south of 12%.