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Journal
Monthly Portfolio Updates and Individual Company Analysis


Portfolio Update: March 2026
Performance Review The following is my active portfolio as of close on 4/2/2026: Here is my portfolio underperformance at market close on 4/2/2026: And alpha by active position at market close on 4/2/2026: It was a terrible month for me and my stocks, most of which can be attributed to GLBE and PZZA. GLBE went from 0.77pps of alpha to -3.25pps of alpha. PZZA was closed shortly after my last writing as a -2.26pp detractor in alpha terms. A really unfortunate development, and i
Christian Evans
6 days ago3 min read
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Research Materials: Papa John's International Short
The following are copies of materials for my research on Papa John's: The TLDR of the PZZA short is that they're going to miss on NNU guidance and SSSG will continue to face headwinds over the next 12-18 months. Their 4Q report was incremental evidence supporting my thesis. Frankly, I don't know very many people that eat at Papa John's and I think the K-shaped economy has left them in no mans land. Domino's dominates on convenience and price sensitive consumers have traded do
Christian Evans
Mar 91 min read
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Portfolio Update: February 2026
The following is my active portfolio as of market close 3/6/2026: Here is my portfolio outperformance at market close on 3/6/2026: And alpha by active position at market close on 3/6/2026: The continuation of earnings season was very kind to me. While I can't numerically confirm this, I'm almost positive that this was the best month for my portfolio in its history. The BNPL pair trade, GLBE, Gold, MORN, a new short position in PZZA, and PAY all contributed positively to alpha
Christian Evans
Mar 94 min read
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Research Materials: PayPoint Long
The following are copies of materials for my research on PayPoint: The TLDR of the pitch is that PayPoint's recent sell off is unwarranted. The valuation makes this very appealing and the underlying business has multiple levers to pull in order to regain fundamental momentum. They're returning gobs of cash to shareholders through both dividends (7.5% yield) and buybacks (7% yield). I think this has a hard time not being a winner over the next 12 months from this point. I've a
Christian Evans
Feb 71 min read
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Portfolio Update: January 2026
The following is my active portfolio as of market close 2/6/2026: Here is my portfolio outperformance at market close on 2/6/2026: And alpha by active position at market close 2/6/2026: Another month, another headache (this has been one of my favorite months investing to date, I'm being facetious). Truthfully it's just been this last week that has been difficult. I had somewhere around 4-5pps of alpha at close on Friday, January 30th. The software selloff hit me hard, and so
Christian Evans
Feb 73 min read
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Portfolio Update: December 2025
The following is my active portfolio as of market close 1/8/2026: Here is my portfolio outperformance at market close on 1/8/2026: And alpha by active position at market close 1/8/2026: It's funny because my alpha was quite literally negative all-time just yesterday. It's been a wild month for the portfolio, with the big contribution coming from Stalexport Autostrady today. I closed the position this morning with 209 bps of portfolio level alpha. Over the last half year I ret
Christian Evans
Jan 82 min read
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Portfolio Update: November 2025
We are halfway through December, but I wanted to report on the portfolio for the month of November. There will be a quick turnaround with December's report and Winter Break will give me some much needed time to think about how I'm positioned and what I want to own moving forward. The following is my active portfolio as of market close 12/16/2025: Here are some more accurate performance metrics that I'm now tracking: Portfolio Outperformance is a sum of alpha on all active and
Christian Evans
Dec 16, 20252 min read
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Research Materials: Eagle Materials Long
The following are copies of materials for my research on Eagle Materials: We believe Eagle Materials owns incredible cement assets in good geographies across the U.S. As they continue their transition toward the cement and concrete businesses, they will be rewarded with a higher multiple. You can buy Eagle cheap right now because residential construction is weak and weighing down the light materials segment. I don't know when housing will inflect, which poses a risk to our ow
Christian Evans
Dec 4, 20251 min read
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Portfolio Update: October 2025
I think it's more helpful to show active positions only, so the following is my portfolio as of market close 11/7/2025: I've realized I'm not measuring performance correctly, and so I'm going to rebuild the portfolio over the course of the coming month. It's quite manual and sluggish. My calculation of alpha is not honest enough and there's essentially no rebalancing going on ever. I might even transition to tracking performance in a paper trading portfolio and use excel to t
Christian Evans
Nov 8, 20253 min read
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Update on Denny's
Denny's is being acquired for $6.25 a share by Yadav Enterprises and Treville Capital. This officially puts a bow on my experience owning and following Denny's. The cost basis for my position was $5.99 a share, so this buyout would've netted me about a 3.3% gain assuming I held through the summer and sold today. While it would've been nice to get back to breakeven, I don't think selling over the summer was a bad choice. The real lesson learned is to sell earlier. Two of the b
Christian Evans
Nov 5, 20251 min read
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Morningstar 3Q25 Thoughts
The following is the message I sent to Silver Fund with my thoughts and analysis of Morningsta r's third quarter: Morningstar reported their 3Q earnings after close today. I think it's best characterized as "more of the same", with solid fundamental performance being overshadowed by the AI conversation and commentary on their end markets being discouraging. Revenue was up 8.4% vs. our estimate of 6.8% and street of 6.2% driven mostly by the Credit businesses' 27% organic grow
Christian Evans
Oct 29, 20253 min read
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Honeywell: 3Q25 and Sell Notice
Honeywell reported third quarter earnings before market open today. They posted really strong organic growth in the Aerospace Tech unit and I think that's the primary reason for the ~7.50% gain today. In my 3 quarters owning Honeywell, it seems like that's all that people really care about. Aerospace was great in 1Q, mediocre in 2Q, and great in 3Q and this has corresponded with the performance of the stock. Sell-side seems to be asking a lot about the margin profile as well,
Christian Evans
Oct 23, 20251 min read
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Research Materials: Morningstar Long
The following are copies of materials for my research on Morningstar: See the memo for my full thesis. It's redundant in my eyes to parrot the memo when I've already done that work. I think this is how I want to share work moving forward given the time it created to initiate in the past. It's more important to get the documentation right than getting the journal entries to look beautiful in my eyes.
Christian Evans
Oct 16, 20251 min read
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Portfolio Update: September 2025
This is more of a mid-October update but still wanted to get a product out. The following is my portfolio as of market close 10/16/2025: And the following is my performance against the S&P 500: And the following is my exposure by sector and geography as of market close 10/16/2025: I'll start by saying I gave up quite a bit of performance in the last month. It's been hard to keep up with the market for the entire time I've been investing truthfully. None of my names have repor
Christian Evans
Oct 16, 20252 min read
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Annual Report 2024/25
To start the annual report I want to define more precisely what I want the purpose of this blog to be. This blog will best serve me as an online investing journal and a tool to document my learning. It is not meant to be a place that forces me to publish research at each quarter. I find this has added stress to my life and made the portfolio less rewarding. Henceforth, this will serve as a place to get my thoughts down as an investor. With that being said, let's look at perfo
Christian Evans
Sep 13, 20252 min read
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Postmortem: Blue Bird Corporation
Entry Price: $36.1 Exit Price: $50.4 Return: 40.43% Alpha Contribution: 2.78pp Hold Period: 186 Days I'm really proud of the work I did...
Christian Evans
Sep 7, 20252 min read
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Postmortem: Denny's
Entry Price: $5.99 Exit Price: $3.70 Return: -38.2% Alpha Contribution: -3.64pp Hold Period: 197 Days Denny's has been far and away the...
Christian Evans
Aug 27, 20253 min read
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Strategy 2Q25: Thesis Confirming
BTC Holdings: 628,946 BTC Yield: 25.0% BTC mNAV: $75,278 Premium to NAV: 50.07% Strategy "reported earnings" two weeks ago and little has...
Christian Evans
Aug 12, 20252 min read
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Honeywell 2Q25: Thesis Intact
Sales Growth: 8% y/y Organic Growth: 5% y/y GAAP EPS: $2.45, 4% y/y Honeywell reported a fine 2Q, with 8% topline growth and 4% EPS...
Christian Evans
Aug 11, 20252 min read
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Portfolio Update: July 2025
The following is my portfolio at 8/9/2025: And the following is my performance against the S&P 500: And the following is my exposure by...
Christian Evans
Aug 10, 20253 min read
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