Portfolio Update: December 2025

The following is my active portfolio as of market close 1/8/2026:

Here is my portfolio outperformance at market close on 1/8/2026:

And alpha by active position at market close 1/8/2026:

It's funny because my alpha was quite literally negative all-time just yesterday. It's been a wild month for the portfolio, with the big contribution coming from Stalexport Autostrady today. I closed the position this morning with 209 bps of portfolio level alpha. Over the last half year I returned 12.7% on a beta of 0.29 at a 20% weight, so swung big and won big. The scary part is that it was basically all luck. I spent some more time in my model yesterday and realized that my liquidation analysis and valuation was off. I was double counting their cash pile. It's better to be lucky than right I guess. The other move that I made was to take weight up in my favorite ideas that might benefit from others buying them back after tax loss harvesting in December. This meant taking weight up in Deckers, Morningstar, and Global-e. More of a trade, but it's positive alpha so far. I've done well in the DECK trade and fine in the other two.

Nothing is imminent in the buy pipeline. I'm going to probably get some Japan weight back here soon through Silver Fund and am planning to add an infrastructure play outside the U.S. soon as well. This month I'm going to think a lot about process and less about what names need to be in the portfolio. I've now got 20% dry powder, but think that this will naturally get deployed over the course of the next 8 weeks as I find things that interest me.

On a personal note, I've moved to a flip phone and am trying to limit my screen time to 60-90 minutes a day. This means that I'm getting less news flow than I otherwise would. I'm going to take these next few weeks and build some tools that help me stay up to date on economic data and news. I want to have a superb information funnel, that way I am more informed than I was pre-flip phone and am very intentional with the data I consume. These tools include market trackers, watchlists, stuff like that. I'll be sure to update you all on the things I build.

I also want to think long and hard about style. I feel like I haven't felt this stylistically lost in some time. This investing stuff, especially in the public markets, is quite difficult. It's fickle and frustrating. I want to put some serious thought into how I invest and if my current style is best suited for me personally.

By the next time I've written, I'll have seen another card from Deckers and Affirm which will be quite informative. I'm really excited for this next earnings season. Abacus will be gone by then and without Abacus in the portfolio I truly feel like I've never known each individual name as well as I know them now.