Portfolio Update: November 2025

We are halfway through December, but I wanted to report on the portfolio for the month of November. There will be a quick turnaround with December's report and Winter Break will give me some much needed time to think about how I'm positioned and what I want to own moving forward.

The following is my active portfolio as of market close 12/16/2025:

Here are some more accurate performance metrics that I'm now tracking:

Portfolio Outperformance is a sum of alpha on all active and closed positions since the start of the portfolio in August of 2024. Annualized outperformance is just that metric annualized. Average and Median Alpha seem relatively self explanatory, and these are only being tracked for active positions. I'm really happy that I've got these figures recalculated. Two takeaways I have from the above information:

1. I've done a good job picking stocks so far. I've got almost two points of alpha (it was actually 2.5 points yesterday, Affirm moved against me hard today) and have accomplished this without owning much of what's really moved the market since I started this exercise.

2. My active positions are not doing very well. See the following:

   

   This is my alpha by active position. Obviously, we have some winners but Deckers has been a huge loser over the last 9 months. It's started to get some ground back but my first buys are detracting materially from performance. This is slightly discouraging too, because the market has started to favor my positioning as of late. Hopefully the momentum in Deckers can continue and I can head into 2026 with positive Active Alpha.

Abacus is on the way out soon. It's similar to many of the names that were sold in November. I added a pair trade on the BNPL space, the research for which I never formally published. The model ended up being much too complex and I'm simply not happy with it. I probably spent 25 hours inside the models for Klarna and Affirm and feel like they still aren't close to where I'd feel comfortable sharing them.

I also added a position in Gold. I'm piggybacking on the "On the Tape" podcast with this trade. For me, this serves as a hedge on all things U.S.. The big concern I had looking at my exposure this last month has been my heavy weight in the U.S., and I feel like Gold gives me some neutralization there. Plus, I see no reason central banks would stop buying Gold anytime soon.

I doubled down in a massive way on my Stalexport Autostrady position after getting around to a mini-model. It models out so well and I think the risk/reward profile is remarkably favorable. I might do some writing on this and publish those materials at some point given it's now a huge position. My work for Eagle Materials was published this month too. This isn't my favorite idea, thus not a huge weight, but if it were to crack I could take it to a bigger position.

Interesting month in markets and I'm happy with how I've allocated dry powder over these last few weeks. More to come on this front. I've got an interesting short in Papa John's that I'm working out right now as well. Happy Holidays!