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Journal
Monthly Portfolio Updates and Individual Company Analysis


Blue Bird 2Q25: Thesis Intact
Revenue: 3.7% y/y Unit Volume: 2295 Buses, 265 EVs Gross Margin: 19.7% Diluted EPS: $0.79 I'm surprised by the reaction to this earnings...
Christian Evans
May 11, 20251 min read


Niterra 4Q25: Thesis Confirming
4Q25 Revenue: 5.5% y/y EBIT: 25.3% y/y EPS: 92.1 FY 2025 Revenue: 6.3% y/y EBIT: 13.4% y/y EPS: 466.34 Another great quarter for Niterra...
Christian Evans
May 6, 20251 min read


Denny's 1Q25: Thesis Intact, Wait and See
Revenue: 1.5% y/y Denny's SSS: (3%) y/y Keke's SSS: 3.9% y/y EPS: $0.01 Store Count: (8) Denny's and (3) Keke's I was listening to Stan...
Christian Evans
May 5, 20252 min read


MicroStrategy 1Q25: Thesis Confirming
BTC Holdings: 553,555 BTC Yield: 13.7% NAV: $53,234,902,757 Premium to NAV: 93.72% What an earnings call. Listening to Saylor and the...
Christian Evans
May 4, 20253 min read


Honeywell 1Q25: Thesis Confirming
Sales Growth: 8% y/y Organic Growth: 4% y/y GAAP EPS: $2.22, beat by $0.26 All around great quarter for the management team at Honeywell....
Christian Evans
May 4, 20252 min read


Portfolio Update: April 2025
The following is my portfolio as of 4/28/2025: And the following is my performance against the S&P 500: The portfolio has bounced between...
Christian Evans
May 3, 20253 min read


Initiating Coverage on Strategy (MSTR US: Model Available)
Date of Initiation: 4/14/2025 Current Price: $311.45 Price Target: $279.43 Conviction: 8/10 Holding Period: 3 Year Hold Model:...
Christian Evans
Apr 15, 20256 min read


Initiating Coverage on Honeywell (HON US: Model Available)
Date of Initiation: 4/14/2025 Current Price: $200.25 Price Target: $260.15 Conviction: 5/10 Holding Period: 2.25 Year Hold Model:...
Christian Evans
Apr 15, 20254 min read


Initiating Coverage on Deckers (DECK US: Model Unavailable)
Date of Initiation: 3/27/2025 Current Price: $116.95 Price Target: $162.7 Conviction: 7/10 Holding Period: 3 Year Hold Model was built...
Christian Evans
Mar 27, 20254 min read


Portfolio Update: March 2025
The following is my portfolio as of 3/18/2025: And the following is my outperformance against the S&P 500: Since my last writing the...
Christian Evans
Mar 18, 20252 min read


Portfolio Update: February 2025
I'm going to begin writing up my thoughts on the portfolio in the main blog each month. I feel that putting it on a separate page has no...
Christian Evans
Feb 19, 20253 min read


Otter Tail 4Q24 and Full Year Write-Up: Thesis Confirming
Full Year Revenue: (1.4%) y/y EPS: 2.4% y/y Plastics Earnings: 6.9% y/y Quarterly Revenue: (3.6%) y/y EPS: (5.2%) y/y Guidance EPS: $5.68...
Christian Evans
Feb 18, 20252 min read


Denny's 4Q24 and Full Year Write-Up: Problematic, Thesis Intact
4Q24 Results: Revenue: (0.61%) y/y Denny's SSS: 1.1% Keke's SSS: 3.0% Net Store Openings: (26) Stores Full Year Results: Revenue: (2.50%)...
Christian Evans
Feb 13, 20253 min read


Blue Bird 1Q25 Write-Up: Mostly Thesis Confirming
Revenue: (1.2%) y/y Gross Margin: 19.2% EV Bus Shipments: 132, 32 above my forecast. Updated Model: BLBD US Blue Bird Corporation.xlsx It...
Christian Evans
Feb 10, 20252 min read


Niterra 3Q24 Write-Up: Thesis Confirming
Consolidated Revenue: 4.4% y/y EBIT Margin (0.73%) y/y Automotive Revenue: 3.6% y/y Ceramics Revenue: 11.6% y/y Niterra printed third...
Christian Evans
Feb 10, 20251 min read


Initiating Coverage on Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD US: Model)
Date of Initiation: 1/30/2025 Price Target: $50.76 Conviction: 7/10 Holding Period: 2 Year Hold Model: BLBD US Blue Bird Corporation.xlsx...
Christian Evans
Feb 5, 20254 min read


Initiating Coverage on Denny's Corporation (DENN US: Model)
Date of Initiation: 1/13/2025 Price Target: $8.08 Conviction: 6/10 Holding Period: 2 Years Model: DENN US Denny's Corporation.xlsx...
Christian Evans
Feb 3, 20254 min read


Initiating Coverage on Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR US: Model)
Date of Initiation: November 19, 2024 Price Target: $88.81 Conviction: 4/10 Holding Period: 3 Year Hold Model: Otter Tail...
Christian Evans
Jan 25, 20254 min read


Initiating Coverage on Niterra Co. (5334 JP: No Model)
Date of Initiation: September 30, 2024 Price Target: ¥6280.80 Conviction: 9/10 Holding Period: 2 Years Model: EV Adoption Model.xlsx...
Christian Evans
Dec 16, 20244 min read
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